As pointed out in previous posts at the NEC-SE, the nuclear deal concluded between the United States and Iran is almost entirely to the latter’s benefit. In effect, the United States has handed Iran the keys to the Middle East. As a result, Iran will shortly move deeper into Iraq and the Kurdish Regional Government. The Iranians must do so now, taking advantage of the window of opportunity that the agreement has opened for them, in order to expand their political and military influence in the region.
These moves by Iran will paralyze KRG national aspirations. It must be said, however, that the KRG has set itself up for this outcome. Developments in the region over the past 15 years have repeatedly shown the KRG leadership that global economics always trumps Kurdish tribal politics and the KRG’s 41 percent corruption index. But the KRG leadership has remained willfully and resolutely blind to such realities. They continue to operate in the same old outmoded ways, guided by an obsolete tribal mentality.
Just last week, for example, the leadership announced that they would sell KRG oil on their own, seemingly oblivious to U.S. Delta Team’s recent successful mission to kill the ISIS oil minister—an action undertaken because ISIS was selling on the cheap to Turkey at the same time that U.S. oil company representatives were in Teheran meeting with Iranian leaders. Kurdish leaders have been shown, but failed to learn, that they cannot govern a nation as if it were a tribe. This is the primary reason that the KRG has not achieved nationhood. Instead of becoming a sovereign state, the KRG is nothing more than a political tool to be used by other global powers to bash each other over the head.
The situation is likely to continue for the next 45 years, when the next redrawing of the Middle East boarders will be completed. NEC-SE hopes that the KRG leaders will take our advise in this article. In light of the fact that there are currently 660,000 Assyrian refugees scattered around the Middle East, with the majority of them residing in KRG administered areas, it is our hope that Kurdish leaders sees this as an opportunity to lay aside tribal divisions and begin forging partnerships with other groups in the region. As we have stated in past postings (e.g. 18-29 JUL 15), these are critical times for security operations, what with the Islamic State celebrating its first anniversary on 28 JUN and Eid-al-Fitr starting on 17 JUL.