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#2) The beginning of a new era for the oldest region (Syria)

NEC-SE has stated on multiple occasions that we feel that it is our mission to help our readers to know how to conduct link analysis when it comes to understanding open source news reports.

On 21 MAY 15 on the Raymond Arauyo show, when asked about Syria and what will happened to the Christians in Syria, I asserted that Bashar al-Assad will not survive more than six months and that the Christian Assyrians will not get back their footprint in the Khabur River Valley. In light of the link analysis below, it seems the time has come to end this decision cycle for what will bring a possible conclusion to the Syria diplomatic crises.

The first article states that Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif has canceled his visit to Turkey: http://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2015/08/12/iranian-fm-zarif-cancels-visit-to-turkey-following-op-ed-in-opposition-newspaper/

Keys in the article are: “A planned Tuesday visit to Turkey by Iran’s Foreign Minister and top nuclear negotiator Mohammad Javad Zarif has reportedly been ‘postponed’…”

“Zarif had been scheduled to meet with Turkey’s Foreign Minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu. The trip was reportedly planned to discuss the strengthening of bilateral relations between the two nations, including solutions to thwart the ongoing Syrian crisis and the battle against the Islamic State.”

“Zarif’s spokeswoman Marzieh Afkham said the trip to Turkey will take place at a later date and that he will instead travel to Beirut, Lebanon on Tuesday followed by a trip to Syria on Wednesday. Zarif will reportedly then travel to India on Friday, which will be followed by a trip to Russia next week.”

The second article states: “Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif set to arrive in Beirut to brief officials on Nuclear Deal”: http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Lebanon-News/2015/Aug-11/310645-iranian-fm-zarif-set-to-arrive-in-beirut-to-brief-officials-on-nuclear-deal.ashx

Keys in the article are: “Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said Tuesday he hopes his visit to Lebanon will mark a new era for relations between Tehran and the Middle East.”

The third article states: “Deadly attacks surge as Iran’s foreign minister visits Syria”: http://www.sfgate.com/news/world/article/Iran-foreign-minister-discusses-Syria-with-6439130.php

Key in the article are: “Iran’s foreign minister who negotiated his country’s nuclear deal with world powers discussed ways of ending Syria’s civil war with President Bashar Assad in Damascus on Wednesday…”

“Mohammad Javad Zarif arrived in Damascus, where he discussed a four-point proposal Iran wants to offer to the United Nations as a way out of Syria’s grinding conflict.

“That plan, according to a Lebanese politician familiar with the proposal, includes a cease-fire and a power-sharing government that would keep Assad in the picture, at least for now, pending internationally supervised elections.

“The politician, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to divulge details of the plan, said it shows the Iranians were “not ready” to withdraw their support for Assad.”

What NEC-SE see from this link analysis is that Turkey, which was heavily engaged in Syria, has been defeated from a policy standpoint. With Zarif going to Syria and Lebanon, it has become clear that Iran is the key player in the region.

NEC-SE believed that before Assad leaves and is “replaced” the Alawites who have been tied to Assad and the Christians will have their own “region.” This is what Russian, U.S. and other key players in Syria may have agreed upon. The Christian “region” will be geographically linked to Lebanon.

The link analysis and our understanding of the operational environment show us that these key players have turned over the execution of their policy to Iran’s FM Zarif, who negotiated his country’s nuclear deal with world powers, which is why he is in Damascus and Beirut talking about the possible peace process in Syria.

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