On 8 OCT 15 NEC-SE posted the article: What will happen if Russian cruise missiles slam into Turkey by accident?
The recent decision by the U.S. to pull its Patriot missile batteries out of Turkey would seem to indicate that it does not want to be put in the position of having to answer the question. We would also note that Germany, which also has Patriot missile batteries in Turkey, will also be withdrawing them, doubtless for the same reason. The only NATO member which will currently keep its Patriot missile batteries in Turkey will be Spain. “’Unless NATO demands otherwise, Spain will continue its mission in Turkey,’ said Defense Minister Morenes. He added that he would be meeting with high-level NATO officials soon regarding the departure of Germany and the US and their reasons for it.”
Needless to say, it does not bode well for the future of NATO when the leader of the organization and one of its strongest member nations are seen to be cutting and running from the region rather than staying in place to support another member nation.
NEC-SE predicts that Turkey will soon have to deal with over flights of its territory by Russian cruise missiles launched from Caspian Sea-based Russian warships, as well as incursions into its airspace by Russian warplanes. The removal of the Patriot batteries raises concerns that the U.S. and Germany will be leaving Turkish skies—and, critically, the civilian aircraft that transit them—defenseless to the Russian weapons.
It bears mentioning in this context that a Dutch report released yesterday on the fate of the Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 concluded that the passenger plane was shot down in the skies over eastern Ukraine by a Russian-made Buk surface-to-air missile.
Yesterday as well international air safety agencies warned, in connection with the Dutch report, that civilian passenger airliners could be at risk form long-range Russian cruise missiles being fired at Syria.
Interestingly, the Dutch report did not assign blame or place responsibility on any nation for the plane’s downing.
NEC-SE wants to go on record with its readers as stating that we will not indulge in such equivocation in the event that a similar incident takes place in Turkish airspace. Nor will we absolve NATO member countries, and the U.S. and Germany in particular, of blame for leaving Turkish airspace undefended. NATO is pledged to defend Turkey from any and all external threats and aggression and if it fails to perform that most basic of treaty duties we will call out this failure in no uncertain terms. Nor will we let Russia off the hook if it violates Turkey airspace and most especially if such violations result in the loss of civilian lives.
All will be called to account, here, for their misdeeds.