Turkey and Saudi Arabia are the two final pieces of the puzzle for defeating ISIS

On 22 FEB 16 Kiçdaroglu told the Republican People’s Party (CHP) to prepare for early elections. Currently, the Turkish elections have been scheduled for 2020, either the worsening security situation, failed constitutional referendum, or social upheaval, might force President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan (RTE) into early elections. NEC-SE believes that a combination of all three will force the early elections in Turkey.

The leader of the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) stated today that his party is not against the idea of local governments but would oppose the establishment of any potential regional autonomy for Kurdish people in Turkey’s predominantly Kurdish Southeast, which is currently being sought by the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP).

Unless RTE wins outright majority of votes in the referendum he might call for early election which will whip up fear and uncertainty within Turkish politics. As Turkey is being squeezed to a point that it may have to enter the war in Syria, a possible ground war in Syria and kinetic air campaign which will place them at odds on the tactical level with the Russians could set the stage for either early election or outright seizure.

Given that NATO recently stated to Turkey that they will not support Turkish kenetic operations into Syria it seems that Turkey has been checkmated into this battle.

RTE telecom with President Obama on Friday resulted in no tangible signals for Turkey from a strategic standpoint.  SRTE spent most of the weekend telling United States representatives via spokesmen to “accept our evaluation without question.”  The United States still has not assigned blame for the Turkish bombing of last week.  Yesterday, Russian President Vladimir Putin, who’s country is the traditional supporter and historical ally of the Kurds within the region, said that the Kurds are not responsible for Ankara blast.

On 19 FEB 16, leaked conversations indicated that there are too many fingerprints inside the VBIED, which exploded in front of the Turkish Army HQ entrance to identify accomplices. Also, there is now debate as to the nationality of the prime suspect.  The investigation has been mired in political blame game given the consequences are so high for all involved.

As of today, the Turkish Army is dead set against any incursions into Syria or Northern Iraq.

In this chaotic region, some groups are allies with Russia and Turkey and some are allies with each other.  Turkey is being supported by U.S. But at the same time, U.S. and Russia have reached agreements on Syria and Iraq. In this equation Turkey and Saudi Arabia will again be blamed regardless of the outcome of this fight given they are the leaders of the Sunni States in the region. The missing piece of the puzzle in this game is the one that Turkey can find.  The piece is the Vilayet of Mosul.  What is Turkeys’ position on the Velvet of Mosul and what is it willing to risk to ensure its interests in Mosul are secured?  In the Turkish position, who does the Vilayet of Mosul belong to?

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Categories: Governance, Security

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