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Turkish forces in Bashiqa are tactically surrounded given the battlefield array of the Iraqi forces moving to take Mosul.

On 30 JUN 15 NEC-SE asserted that, in order to hold northern Syria. Turkey may also have to conduct operations in northern Iraq. In the article we referenced our post from 29 MAR 15 NEC-SE in which we stated: “Furthermore, Turkey now has possibly 60 to 90 days to determine whether closing the border will still allow them the regional influence and control they need over northern Syria and Iraq to be a regional hegemon and thus prevent further Iranian influence and further Kurdish territorial expansion within and along its southern boarders. If closing the borders does not achieve this aim you may be assured that Turkey will be forced to take military action in the KRG footprint and in northern Syria to create a security or buffer zone along key terrain against regional competitors (i.e., Iran), and to ensure that fighting does not spill over into southern turkey.

“With Iran having indirect and direct control over Kirkuk and its oil fields, the taking of Tikrit will be the first step towards furthering Iranian hegemonic goals in the region.”

https://nec-se.com/2015/07/26/turkey-attacks-kurdish-militant-camps-in-northern-iraq/

So now Turkey is being squeezed again.  On 9 SEP 16 NEC-SE we posted an article in which we stated that “under the terms of the original Sykes-Picot agreement, Ottoman Turkey was partitioned. It is the NEC-SC’s view that the same fate has been reserved for the modern Turkish republic in part as long-delayed punishment for using the Kurds as their henchmen in conducting the Syfo genocide of 1914-1923.”

http://www.ncas.rutgers.edu/center-study-genocide-conflict-resolution-and-human-rights/assyrian-genocide-1914-1923-and-1933-pres

“Turkey has endeavored to remain a viable nation-state with the ability able to direct or influence events in the region and abroad, particularly in Europe. To that end it has intervened militarily in the Syrian civil war, supported ISIS, and caused refugee problems for the EU. Relatedly, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan even staged what has become to be known as “his coup,” which he used to consolidate and expand his power in Turkey. Further, in the immediate aftermath of the coup Erdogan demanded the extradition of Turkish cleric Fethullah Gülen from the U.S to Turkey (Gulan currently resides in the U.S.) for his supposed role in plotting Erdogan’s ouster.”

https://nec-se.com/2016/09/28/what-is-next-for-the-new-sykes-picot-of-the-21st-century-now-that-russia-and-u-s-have-reached-an-understanding-on-the-middle-east/

The problem for Turkey is that Erdogan is pushing for easy elections in the spring to achieve constitutional “reform.”  He needs to project strength to ensure this happens while at the same time can not allow the military encircled in Iraq to tell the public that this is solely his idea.  He needs to project Neo Ottoman ambitions in the region under the securing boarders or what he calls “Euphrates Shield” requirements to defeat the PKK, Gulenist, and ISIS.  However, the more important issue on his plate is ensuring that Russians tourists return to Anatalya as the Shia project a footprint in the historical regions of Mosul.

http://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2016/10/18/1215045/iraq-says-gains-control-over-regions-surrounding-turkish-forces-bashiqa-base

Related articles:

http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/insidestory/2016/10/battle-mosul-matter-turkey-161018193749375.html

https://nec-se.com/2015/10/04/how-russia-has-just-extended-the-war-for-possibly-another-10-years/

https://nec-se.com/2016/09/16/russian-general-staff-in-turkey-as-russia-conducts-joint-military-drills-with-pakistan/

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Categories: Uncategorized

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